Blue Devils in the Big Apple to take on Red Storm

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/25/2007 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Duke Blue Devils are playing with a tremendous amount of confidence, and they will take on the St. John's Red Storm this afternoon in non-conference action from New York's famed Madison Square Garden.

Duke has won its last three games to move to 21-7 overall and 8-6 in league play. On Thursday, the Blue Devils recorded a 71-66 decision over Clemson to move one game above .500 in league play. After today's clash, Duke will close out the regular season against Maryland and North Carolina.

St. John's has lost its last two games to fall to 6-9 in Big East Conference action, overshadowing a more positive 15-13 overall record. The Red Storm were completely manhandled on Wednesday, as they dropped a 72-48 decision to Louisville on the road.

Duke holds a 10-5 lead in the all-time series with St. John's.

Four of the five Duke starters scored in double figures in Thursday's victory over Clemson. Jon Scheyer scored 18 points on 5-of-6 shooting from the field, including 3-of-3 from behind the arc. DeMarcus Nelson posted 16 points in the clash, and Greg Paulus finished with 14 points and six assists. On a down note, Paulus committed a staggering total of nine turnovers. The forth and final double-digit scorer was Josh McRoberts with 10 points. The Blue Devils shot 52.2 percent from the floor, including 7-of-14 from three-point range, and they outscored the Tigers 16-9 from the foul line. Nelson leads the team in scoring with 14.1 ppg, and McRoberts checks in with 13.0 ppg. Scheyer, just a freshman, adds 12.5 ppg to the mix, and Paulus rounds out the group with 10.2 ppg. A couple of weeks ago, some fans and analysts were talking about the possibility of Duke missing the NCAA Tournament. Clearly, all that speculation has ceased.

Nothing seemed to go right for St. John's in the ugly loss to Louisville the last time out. The Red Storm shot 26.3 percent from the floor in the contest, including 7-of-28 from three-point range. They also turned the ball over 16 times and played shaky defense. Anthony Mason led St. John's with 19 points and eight rebounds, while Lamont Hamilton pitched in 12 points and nine rebounds. Hamilton leads the team with 13.5 ppg and 6.8 rpg, and Mason checks in with 11.5 ppg. The third and final double-digit scorer in the lineup is Avery Patterson with 10.9 ppg. St. John's is netting only 63.8 ppg on 41 percent shooting from the field, and poor offensive production has played a major role in the team's struggles.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.