Oswalt leaves early in Houston's win at Pittsburgh

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Lee's first-inning, two-run home run proved enough for Houston to edge Pittsburgh, 2-1, and prevent the struggling Pirates from getting their seventh straight win versus the Astros this year.

Chris Burke finished 2-for-4 and scored a run for the Astros, who have won two of three. Mark Loretta and Morgan Ensberg both added a pair of hits in the win.

Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt (9-6) left in the seventh inning with a chest injury. After he gave up a lead-off double to Ronny Paulino, Oswalt complained of chest discomfort to manager Phil Garner and a trainer. Oswalt had been performing well from the mound prior to the exit, and allowed one run on seven hits with four strikeouts.

Adam LaRoche and Paulino both had a pair of hits for the Pirates, who lost their seventh straight, coming into this series having been swept in three games at Atlanta and then in three games at home against Colorado.

Tom Gorzelanny (9-5), shooting for his fourth straight winning decision, allowed two runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts over seven innings for the Bucs.

In the ninth, Pittsburgh loaded the bases on Brad Lidge, who actually received a payoff from having them each occupied. Paulino singled and got replaced by pinch-runner Rajai Davis on the basepaths. Jack Wilson then bunted him over to second before pinch-hitter Xavier Nady walked and Nate McLouth got hit by a pitch with one out.

Lidge then struck out Matt Kata swinging, and Freddy Sanchez but the ball got away from catcher Brad Ausmus, who gathered it just in time to step on home plate for the game-ending forceout and Lidge's second save of the season.

Houston put up two runs in the first when Burke singled and scored on Lee's two-run shot to left field on a 3-1 pitch.

Pittsburgh got on the board with a run in the fourth, as Sanchez lined a lead- off double before Jason Bay singled him home.

Game Notes

The Pirates got their season off to a promising start when they swept the Astros in Houston from April 2-4 to open the season. The club then hosted Houston from April 24-26 and took all three games of that set as well. It was a quick turnaround for a Pirates team that lost 13 of the 16 games they played against the Astros last season. That included seven losses in 10 home games in 2006...Oswalt has 107 wins, tying him with J.R. Richard for fourth place on the club's list. He's 11-5 lifetime against Houston.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.