Struggling Stuttgart, Nurnberg need a win

Soccer Betting Lines

11/02/2007 - Nuremberg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Bundesliga champion Stuttgart and reigning league cup champion Nurnberg - which have combined to lose nearly as many games this season as the clubs did all of last year - play Saturday in a key league match for both clubs.

Stuttgart is the most disappointing club in the league this season, losing six of its first 11 matches to sit 12th in the standings with just 13 points.

Nurnberg, which finished sixth in the league last season, has also dropped six games through 11 matches, but is even worse shape with just nine points and is 15th in the league.

The teams lost just 13 matches combined all of last season.

Stuttgart (4-6-1) visits Nurnberg (2-6-3) on Saturday in a match featuring two clubs in desperate need of a victory.

"After their cup success," Stuttgart coach Armin Veh said, "Nuremberg have had similar problems to us in the league."

Stuttgart did gain a little momentum with a 1-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen last week, snapping a three-game losing streak where it was outscored 8-2. But then VfB needed an overtime winner from Mario Gomez to edge Paderborn in the league cup on Wednesday.

"Of course a win like that (against Bayer) boosts a sides confidence, but in saying that, we thought the same thing when we beat Frankfurt 5-1," Nurnberg manager Hans Meyer said.

Nurnberg followed that impressive win with a 3-1 loss to Wolfsburg last week, a match Meyer said "we deserved to lose." Nurnberg added a loss to Carl Zeiss Jena in penalty kicks on Thursday in the league cup.

Although Stuttgart may have a little more momentum, it has yet to win (0-5) on the road this season in league play. It's a stat Meyer is aware of, but isn't very concerned with.

"Lets imagine all these statistics have absolutely no baring on the game. If we win, I'll tell you that it was clear to me that VfB would lose, if we are beaten then I'll have something to worry about ...," Meyer said.

Stuttgart will also not have Mexican defenders Pavel Pardo and Ricardo Osorio, who were given time off by Veh.

"Both have played over two years straight through without a break," Veh said, "so I've given them three days off."

Stuttgart is also without Roberto Hilbert, who tore a ligament in his ankle in last weekend's win over Bayer. He's expected to miss two-to-three weeks.

Nurnberg is also decimated by injuries and will not have Robert Vittek, Javier Pinola and Angelos Charisteas this weekend.

Nurnberg has gotten the better of Stuttgart recently, winning both matches in league play last season and a third meeting the league cup final. Nurnberg won those three games by a combined score of 10-3, including 3-0 and 4-1 victories during league play.

Of the two clubs, Nurnberg is more in need of a victory or it could be in one of the three relegation spots by the end of the weekend. Bochum and Duisburg each have nine points as well, but Nurnberg currently holds the tiebreaker.

Also on Saturday, first-place Bayern Munich hosts Eintracht, Werder Bremen hosts Rostock, Bayer Leverkusen hosts Arminia Bielefeld, Hamburg hosts Hertha Berlin, Bochum hosts Wolfsburg and Hannover hosts Borussia Dortmund.

On Sunday, Karlsruher hosts Duisburg and Bochum hosts Wolfsburg.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

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In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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